Corona virus Lockdown

Discussion in 'Just Talk' started by koolpc, Mar 23, 2020.

  1. timotay

    timotay Active Member

    So a bloke on a tractor...in a cab....cutting the grass...in a field and paying tax, NI and vat on his purchases is a danger to someone ?
     
    WillyEckerslike likes this.
  2. ajohn

    ajohn Screwfix Select

    Testing testing still keeps cropping up but it's not feasible without rather precise tracking to get at the people most in need of it. That is how the east has done it. An academic has even pointed out that this could help get things out of lock down. Might turn out to be the best way to control it afterwards.

    Work figures in instructions. Work at home if possible, Work if not but some conditions. iI you think you have it don't work for 7 days which has been 14days in most countries. Pretty obvious why work figures as more in it reduces the cost of supporting people. It seems that virus may still be around at 7 days but all virus usually are when people have recovered so all is ok.

    In theory a complete lock down could sort it out in 14days. Probably turn out to be more like 1 month+. People need to feed themselves. Weekly shops aren't unusual and most couldn't store enough food for much longer. Food makes anything they suggest tricky to some degree for varying numbers of people.

    The figures we are told don't give the full picture. Hospital entries are by area not by the number of people in them. Deaths in other countries don't mention hospital entries or populations. People live in different styles of property. Not been in many apartment blocks or high rises etc but the people nearest the exit are least likely to get infected. These things tend to be mostly in big cities but are all over the place in some countries. You might say we are being fed spam. So as things don't always stack up continue to suggest the Chinese haven't told the truth. I wonder what proportion of their population caught it. They checked people going in and out of their high rises - might be a janitor type via thermal imaging. Then they had automated tracking as well.

    20% of our population is 65+, 13 to 15million people. Drops to under 3% in their 80's. Much lower chance of recovering. 10% say might die. A lot of people even if it was 5%. A lot of them have been told to self isolate for 3 months. Seems a million plus very vulnerable get food delivered but those wont all be 65+. So end lock down and if there is still some about these people get a degree of isolation based on how many people can still infect others. I suspect there may be reasons why China could have a lower death rate than other countries. % of age range, chairman mao and his daily exercise, millions dying of starvation - some time ago now but. Similar factors will apply to other countries.

    The health minister now has a 5 pillar plan. Not sure how that relates to a 5 point plan. Words again. 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month. Complete evasion on what proportion of this will be the viral test so most are likely to be the immunity test. Amazon figures in it. Porton Down are going to do some more precise ones as well. Aim seems to be to get a statistical idea of how many people have had it. They had a nurse on the TV. 2 viral tests came back negative so they gave him a cat scan and found that he did have it. I've heard cat scan diagnosis being mentioned before - Itally. We haven't enough to check for prostrate cancer properly.

    So what they need is a vaccine. Leaves me wondering what will happen when a lock down ends because there may be sufficient around to need the tracking that we don't have again.
     
    Heat likes this.
  3. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member

    The official government "exit strategy" now is the immunity test.

    I did some number crunching on this - it makes for sorry reading.

    The government is hoping to hold infection rate down via the lockdown - because we aren't performing testing, we have no idea of the actual case numbers, but we do know that roughly 600 people are dying each day. Let's increase that to 1000, which is where it peaked in Italy. That would suggest 100,000 new cases each day (based on an IFR of 1%). At this rate it will take 330 days for half the population to become infected. After that you hope with half the population immune, the rate of spread of the infection will be slow even with the lockdown being slowly lifted (although it will still be dangerous for at-risk people to be out and about).
    But 330 days of lockdown - that's our economy screwed for the next 10-20 years.

    Testing people to see if they are immune and can be "released" from lockdown - if we test 100,000 people a day it would take 330 days to test everybody ONCE! But most of those tested will come back negative at first - even after 330 days only half would be likely to be positive. Or put another way - currently there's been nearly 3000 deaths in the UK, which suggests that 10 days ago (av time between infection and death) there were 300,000 active cases. So perhaps there's 1,300,000 cases now. That's 1.8% of the population! If we randomly test 100,000 people then only 1800 will show immunity. 1800 people/day being released from lockdown - how long will it take to lift? A bloody long time!

    Worst of all with this approach - can you imagine when some people are allowed to work, while others are not?? Will people wait patiently in a queue for several weeks when their friends, neighbours, colleagues are regaining their freedom?? It will be utter chaos!

    We're the ONLY nation on earth taking this insane approach.
     
  4. ajohn

    ajohn Screwfix Select

    They just announce that the 100,000 a day traget is swab testing. The MOH didn't make that clear. Also that the immunity test isn't ready. A medical man stated that it's only 90% reliable but may have to be used anyway. A certificate was mentioned - addition to job interview questions ???

    Swab testing - how ever it's looked at needs effective tracking as the numbers without it are too high in just about any country. A million a day would still take to long.

    Looks like they have created some super test rate labs.
     
  5. timotay

    timotay Active Member

    100,000 "proposed" by the ...END OF APRIL.
    Germany is already testing more than any other European country at a rate of up to 500,000 a week, but the latest plans would more than double that capacity.
    Harold Wilson said..." A week is a long time in politics "
     
  6. ajohn

    ajohn Screwfix Select

    Strangely enough that was a wise man followed by MI? in case he was a communist.

    1,000,000 a day wont help really.
     
  7. timotay

    timotay Active Member

    This might help albeit some what verbose.
     
    PaulBlackpool likes this.
  8. PaulBlackpool

    PaulBlackpool Screwfix Select

    Thanks for that. Now got it on my You tube history for further reference.
    My take on that is .
    1 Avoid dealings with Police if at all possible.
    2 If stopped either walking or in your vehicle; be polite even if they are not , do not rile them in any way
    3 Keep calm ; Do not loose your temper
    4 Give them the information they want which should accord with their instructions
    5.If asked to go home : do so quietly and calmly
    6 And so "Live to fight another day"
    7 When you are safely back in your castle, two up to down, whatever, Realise we live in a Police State and have done for a very long time.
    8 Conclusion : What's really new then.
     
    timotay likes this.
  9. Sparkielev

    Sparkielev Screwfix Select

    I have a dilemma if anyone can help me get round it, my Mrs works in a care home as activity co ordinator, she was told today they have residents with the virus' in the nursing part of the home, now my issue is I'm supposed to start a job tomorrow with my mate on 5 flats, I'm worried she will get infected she also has asthma, I have told her not to go but she won't have it,
    My option is to give my mate the van and I stay home or we do different days, we live in a bungalow so isolation is difficult
     
  10. PaulBlackpool

    PaulBlackpool Screwfix Select

    In answer to my point 8 is that a PCSO (Police Community Support Officer) now apparently has the same power as a Police Officer (Constable , Sergeant, Inspector etc). He/she has been upgraded for the duration.
    DISCLAIMER
    My post above concerns the Police . It does not contain any advice to protect yourself, partner,children,other relatives, friends , co- workers, shop workers NHS staff and indeed everybody else. Follow the law, observe the guidelines, especially the 6 foot rule,don't let the Police upset you and let us all get past this terrible period in our lives.
     
  11. wiggy

    wiggy Screwfix Select

    Run it by your mate, he may live with vulnerable people or might be one himself. If he is cool with it carry on as normal, if not split the week between between the two of you.
    Or tell the wife to stay at work for a couple of weeks.
     
  12. Sparkielev

    Sparkielev Screwfix Select

    I told him he ok with doing separate days, he has his own place, I don't think she should be there, most care homes put profit over safety so it concerning
     
  13. wiggy

    wiggy Screwfix Select

    With asthma no she shouldn't but are you going to tell her.
     
  14. PaulBlackpool

    PaulBlackpool Screwfix Select

    If he will do a good a job as you then you could just go after he has finished to check on things and possibly do some snagging.
    You can hardly be 6 foot apart if you both travel in the same van.
    Working 6 foot apart on the same job must be usually impracticable.
    When I was walking the dog today I saw that work was continuing on a 6 storey block of apartments not too far from where I live. It is steel framed.
    A double skin of concrete blocks and DG patio doors on the ground floor are the only work done since the steel-work was erected except for two joiners on the 5th floor putting the
    timber joists in. They had to get within 6 feet to do their job.
    You have to consider yourself and your wife as one unit that might be infected.
    The greatest risk here is that she will get it at the home and give it to you. There are a lot of deaths in care homes.
    If she is doing what countless NHS staff are doing for the greater good then so be it.
    If you get it you don't want to give it your mate hence my advice above.
    Whether you want to sanitise the steering wheel and gear lever and door handles when you change over is up you.
    We are all gonna disappear up our own jacksie at this rate.
     
  15. PaulBlackpool

    PaulBlackpool Screwfix Select

    I don't think that Police video will be on Youtube for long .
    Just wait and see!
     
    timotay likes this.
  16. Sparkielev

    Sparkielev Screwfix Select

    I told her but she wants to help she very stubborn, I think the home should be locked down with staff staying over otherwise all the staff are going to spread it when they go home
     
  17. Sparkielev

    Sparkielev Screwfix Select

    Yeah I trust him he a good sparks think only option we have is to do separate days with cleaning van after a shift
     
    PaulBlackpool likes this.
  18. wiggy

    wiggy Screwfix Select

    Yes common sense would say that.
    How contagious is this virus if all the guidelines are followed. I think not very.
    But its down to the individual and what they consider a risk and who in turn they may be putting at risk.
     
  19. PaulBlackpool

    PaulBlackpool Screwfix Select

    Saw this all the way through on Youtube.
    Starts 8 minutes in and then lasts another 47 minutes.
    Well worth 47 minutes of your time.
     
  20. sparky steve

    sparky steve Screwfix Select

    2ACEB693-BC96-4F55-ACA8-0C3EA2CA9F0E.jpeg The queen’s speech tomorrow will be like a mini-skirt. Long enough to cover the essentials but short enough to hold your attention!
     
    Tangoman likes this.

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