Discussion in 'Just Talk' started by koolpc, Mar 23, 2020.
"How dare you"!
I see on Youtube that Sky News Australia are promoting the theory that this was started in a laboratory in Wuhan by a worker /scientist being sprayed with bat blood and urine whilst working on it for some nefarious purpose no doubt. . He then went to the wet fish market in Wuhan ( like you do) and it then spread all over the world.
Some locals say bats are not eaten in Wuhan and are not sold at the market which might stop them eating them on reflection.
Hello btiw2 .Have you crawled out of the woodwork as well as I?
@PaulBlackpool Patient zero would be easy to find. They work in the lab.
So do you think there is something in this theory then?
Viruses warning shots over the last 20 years and now we have a nasty one. Where it came from who knows. Been many over the centuries
Well it looks like the government will be releasing the lockdown well before the virus is eliminated - I suspect by the end of May at the latest.
They'll probably reopen schools first and I would expect everyone is told to go back to work but otherwise to maintain social distancing rules.
The big question will be how will people respond? I used to date a teacher, but there's no * way I'd have let her return to a classroom as long as this virus is about as she'd definitely get it and then give it to me!
I guess the same will be true of people wanting jobs done across the nation - some people will want the work done, others will be afraid. Tradespeople are going to have to decide whether to take the risk and do the work, or stay safe. It's going to be utter chaos.
They say that the government will do it in stages.
Stage 1 will be the 20 to 30 age group!!
Now, I ask you, where is the sense in releasing the most socially interactive age group first...any fool knows what will happen.
No, I'm speaking metaphorically when I state that when this government brings in their June trawl there will be a big hole in the heel of it!!!
Just rumours really. They are unlikely to do much until there is a significant fall in daily infections. One idea relates to herd immunity. It's been said that if they can achieve 60% lock down can end. Suppose it reduces the spreading rate but a bit like a lottery for some one that isn't immune. It could result in low daily death rates for a rather long period. Looks good but ................... It seems Porton Down are testing samples of people for immunity and how long it lasts. 16 to 20,000 people has been mentioned by invitation.
Over 70's were told to self isolate for 3months weeks ago. There are about 14million over 65's in the country. They sent out another load of letters to the "vulnerable" recently so 3 months for them has started again. Numbers of those are vague. 1 million plus any doctors inform them of. They reckoned up to 500,000 or so.
The gov has launched a web site for some form of infection tracking. Idea seems to be for the infected to contact people they have been near. Pity if they passed 50 at Tesco etc. Countries that really do have in under control used mobile phones - China, Korea and Singapore. Also Hong Kong specifically. Seems Apple and Google are working on similar. The ummm "free" countries keep the data for 21days but with 1.3 billion doubt if China keeps it for long.
So we have to wait and see but some forecasts put the UK's eventual death toll way above others. England's death rate per infection is higher than Wales, Scotland and N. Ireland. I'm currently wondering why. There have been some leaks suggesting that ICU's need more than a ventilator.
There is a video on the beebs site about how China's tracking works.
The forecasting by the "experts" is becoming farcical in my opinion.
The internationally well respected IMHE was recently forecasting deaths in the UK of 66000, the highest in Europe. They have now revised the forecast to 37500 with a range between 26000 and 62500 by the 4th august which sort of makes its definition as a forecast pretty useless. They also have a forecast of deaths "around" the 17th April of 1700 daily or in a range of 650 to 4000 again not exactly precise! It will be interesting to revisit these figures when the 17th comes around to see how far out they are.
I also suspect that the daily virus death figures are substantially over inflated as they are counting everyone who dies and has tested positive for the virus as a virus "death". This will come clearer this week and next week as the overall death rates, all causes, for the UK come out for the period of increased virus deaths (last week and the week before) and they can be compared to the previous 5 year average. If there is not a weekly spike corresponding to the sum of the daily figures for that week we will know the "experts" have it wrong again.
Frankly if these are the sorts of forecasts that the experts are giving there is not a lot of point in making them public.
But then what do I know, I am not an expert.
We should all listen to the genius that is Donald Trump
Not only a wonderful businessman, entrepreneur, president of the United States but also a fully trained medical advisor who specialises in viruses and infection control
He had the virus issue all wrapped up by the middle of February with only 15 people showing signs of infection, all are getting better and all will soon recover and that will be the end of this problem
I used to like his approach and forthrightness and his way of speaking what was on his mind
Sure, he has his flaws (many) and he’s certainly not a polished performer (like his predecessor)
But with the pandemic in the states, he can’t open his mouth without sprouting utter rubbish and lies and bull ‘excrement’
Like most countries at the moment are struggling to obtain sufficient quantities of PPE, when Trump was recently questioned on this issue by a journalist, he blamed the Obama administration for ‘leaving the shelves bare’
Er,,,,,,,,, Donald, you’ve been in office for 4 years (in case you didn’t realise)
Obama is no longer in charge of ordering disposable gloves and aprons, that’s been your job for the last 4 years
He is now looking totally insane - whereas previously, only partially deranged
The figures they use are from hospital deaths that have been checked for the virus. There are also community deaths, The national statistics is counting those at the moment from death certificates probably less reliable but certain aspects are likely to differentiate it from flue.
If you think the numbers would make a significant difference to the usual rate at this time of year you'll be in for a big surprise. The other factor is how bad things need to be to get into hospital. A lot more would die if it wasn't for that.
Figures from the ONS for all deaths in the UK are out weekly and they also include a 5 year average of each corresponding week. I look forward to the figures that will be out next week, tuesday I believe, when it should be pretty clear if there has been a spike corresponding to the figure of virus deaths announced daily. Will the spike in overall deaths be much lower than we are led to believe? It will be interesting.
Time will tell but some one who seemed to know the figures did say on TV that CV19 currently matched flu deaths - we are out of the time period when most flue deaths occur. He mentioned that they have lots of data on deaths and from that can determine what CV19 has done and it's effects in other death areas as well.
Boris has been mentioned as an example - he could have died, recovered but without CV19 would be expected to go on for some time without any problems.
Some people have argued just let it run as we always have deaths at such and such a rate. Fact is many people who have gone into the hospital would have died if they stayed out - including Boris.
I hope they manage to come up with a test soon to see if you've already had it or not. Our household all had dry coughs for a few days about three weeks back (enough to take Aldi's cold and flu capsule thingies), so we may have had the mild version, but we simply have no idea. Of course we really hope we have.
I'll post the latest overall death figures tomorrow when they come out, tuesday, with a comparison of the last 5 years over the same time period.
I wouldn't focus on exactly how many more people are dying this year than "normal".
The published figures are really only useful as a means of tracking the size of the epidemic, and they're roughly 3 weeks out of date.
Need to bear in mind that most of those who have died so far, contracted the virus BEFORE the UK went into lockdown. Had we not gone into lockdown, then the rate of growth in deaths we've seen in the past 3 weeks - going from <100 to ~1000/day would have continued, i.e. there would probably be around 10,000/day dying in 3 weeks time. Actually it would be higher than that because so far the NHS has just about coped. Even with a little increase in the number of cases from current, they would have been forced to start turning away treatable people away simply on the basis that they would be less likely to recover than younger patients.
And comparisons with flu deaths are meaningless. Current deaths arise from fewer than 1 million cases, the epidemic is just beginning. Nobody has immunity (except those who've had it), so if left to run, the epidemic would eventually infect 70-90% of the population, resulting in at least 500,000 deaths - note in 2018 there were 616,000 deaths in total - that's assuming that the NHS always has capacity to treat people, which probably won't be the case - one model suggested that there'd be 8 times as many patients at peak as they could cope with. "Sorry, you're over 45, we can't treat you....". Suddenly your odds of dying as a 46 year old go from 1 in 200 to 1 in 20.
Comparing the total deaths over a particular period this year over the same period last year, or an average over the last 5 years, will give an indication (note indication only) of how many deaths from the covid virus may well have happened anyway. So the ONS figures out on tuesday (today), can be compared with the same period last year and if they have spiked to the same extent, or similar, than the announced deaths from covid over the same period we can be more certain that the daily announced deaths are as a primary result of the virus. Always taking into account yearly variation which can be taken into account by comparing to the 5 year average and noting the year to year spread in the totals.
At the moment we have little idea of how many of the deaths announced everyday would have happened anyway. The criteria that they use appears to take a very liberal view of what constitutes a death from the virus. In fact it is noticeable that they often use the word "with" rather than "from" the virus.
As I said I will post the figures, they will have a lag of about a week which I will take into account, which I think will be interesting as they will for the first time cover a period where the announced death figures surged. Will they reflect that? We shall see later today.
I am not too arrogant to admit being completely wrong in my suspicions about the death figures. The latest ONS figures are out for the week up to the 3rd April and they are grim.
For the week from the 27th to the 3rd April a total of 16,387 deaths were recorded in England and Wales. This is 6000 more than the 5 year average over the same time period, a huge increase. The 5 year average for this time period is 10,305.
These figures imply that far from my suggestion that the figures for deaths are being exaggerated, they are being underestimated.
The most relevant figure in tracking the epidemic is the rate of new infections. The death tally, of course is the media's favourite as it is so emotive, but it has a long time lag, so is out of date.
The daily new infections give a clearer picture of the state of play now, there seems to be stabilisation, hopefully it will then track across the graph relatively level before dropping away back to near zero.
The big issue is what then? how do we get going again. Re-opening schools would be suicidal, as children get the bug very mildly (on average) they will merrily spread it between themselves and then households, and before you know you have a second wave worse than the first. So what do you release and what is the impact.
They suggest aggresive test and trace, but that didn't work at the start, why should it work now?
The esitimation is that approx 4% or 2.5million have had it, which means 62 million have not, which is a lot more ground to cover before we get to herd immunity.
And in response to the earlier bat comment, no one ate a bat, the bat acted as the breeding ground for the virus, which then got into (either directly or indirectly) the Pangolin that was at the market - No one had to eat the pangolin either, it was sick and someone contracted the virus when they handled it, when it managed to jump species - just as it has subsequently done between zoo keeper and tiger (not surprising as felines a suseptable to coronavirus').
Whichever way up you put it it's a ***** mess!
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