Corona virus Lockdown

Discussion in 'Just Talk' started by koolpc, Mar 23, 2020.

  1. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member

    Sort of - as long as you recognise that what you're actually tracking there is hospital admissions, NOT the number of new infections. We don't test people outside of hospital unless they're the daughter of a senior politician.

    The drop-away to zero will take a while. For comparison, it took 2 months of a TOTAL lockdown in China to bring numbers down to close to zero. The UK is less than one month into something that isn't really close to a total lockdown, with LOTS of people still working, travelling on public transport, visiting supermarkets, not to mention the idiots holding parties.

    Well we didn't do this initially. We hardly tested anyone, and we certainly didn't trace contacts - we did this for a handful of people who had returned from China at the end of January, and then we gave up. Remember, we had the herd-immunity/do-nothing plan back then. The intent was to let the virus spread quickly through the population.


    Too right!
     
  2. Tony Goddard

    Tony Goddard Screwfix Select

    Totally agree, in theory we can extrapolate an estimated number of infections from the admissions data, but thats shaky at best as it really depends who is getting it - as the old folks are mainly isolating, we have to assume it's middle aged and younger, who are less likely to wind up in hospital, so there could in fact be more infections than estimated by quite a lot, or indeed, the opposite. Plus no one really knows how many asymptomatic/very very mild cases there are. A friend in Australia had what he described as a mild cold, as did his wife, it was only when his 79 year old mum started a cough he thought to get her tested (which is possible there) - all tested positive - all recovered with no further complications. Had Covid not been a thing, none would have gone for testing and thought nothing more of it based on their symptoms -- and happily spread it around!
     
  3. Muzungu

    Muzungu Screwfix Select

    Agreed, the death rate could be as much as 4 weeks behind so is no indication as to what is happening now, other than how many people are dying now.

    I was interested in the criteria they were using to define a covid death and was using the total death rate to, hopefully, tease some clarity as to whether the criteria they were using was valid. It appears to be.
     
  4. Muzungu

    Muzungu Screwfix Select

    Source ITV but you heard it here first :)
    "the latest figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which showed significant disparity in the government's death toll compared with that of the ONS."
     
    longboat likes this.
  5. ajohn

    ajohn Screwfix Select

    The virus is a mutation of one from bats. One similar seems to have been traced to some animal eating bat poo. Not sure which, mers or sars. The changes in the virus have been reported to be rather small so maybe it just mutated - they do.

    As some one mentioned the latest figures from the ONS show that deaths are being understated. The BBC went through it with a nice graph, lunch time news so maybe again at 6pm. C4 found a whistle blower that reckon GP's seem to be reluctant to put CV19 on death certificates and deaths from what is being put at times is up. They are up anyway but from memory 1/2 of the questionable ones is still a lot of people over the PHE figures which sticks to hospital figures as they are people that have been tested. The international way of reporting.

    They can only really guess how many have been infected and recovered all on their own. Hence the interest in immunity tests. Porton Down has been mentioned for a highly accurate test using 16 to 20,000 people by invitation to look at this and how long immunity lasts. I found some gov testing figures that put these down to the NHS and around 2,000 tests and no mention of the number of people. Ramping up to 1,000 tests a day was mentioned.

    An NHS mobile phone tracker has also been mentioned. Just done via the phones and nothing stored elsewhere. I suspect this has only worked when it's tied to testing and in Singapore's case the number of tests per capita was rather large. This seems to be how China and S Korea handled things. A bit different - Korea kept data for a rolling 21 days. That could be used to direct testing and it seems it was. Maybe ours will do that too. It uses blue tooth so suppose it works on that's range somehow. Just one report on the TV so might just be an idea at the moment.

    Hospital entry rate has been statistically levelled by the lock down. Up and down but a reasonable mean. Hospital usage numbers have as well. Hope for the same reasons. One thing bugs me. If some one looks at deaths/cases for the major regions England is a lot higher than Wales etc unless it's changed pretty recently. Daily deaths are tricky. Might be from a couple of hours to 3 weeks or so but long term counts should indicate something. I suppose count of entries grew more slowly in some parts of the country.

    Lots of worry about the economy. I'm wondering if it might need some creative thinking similar to when banks loose money that they can't get back - write it off and start again. Trying to maintain it seems a bit crack pot to me when expenses are counted in. It's reckoned that poorer countries will need billions in aid. They wont be capable of paying it back.
     
  6. Tony Goddard

    Tony Goddard Screwfix Select

    So just got back from a job, the first in 3 weeks, an emergency call out to a vulnerable lady - loss of power, easy fix, NE fault in appliance - driving out there 10 miles along the Salisbury to Southampton road I was the only vehicle on the road save for a flat bed about 500 yeards ahead with a fridge freezer on, it pulled into a layby and I passed on by. At that point I had a feeling the fridge freezer might still be there when I went back.

    45 minutes later on the return trip, again on a silent road, very eerie, (anyone who knows it will know how busy it can get, especially at Salisbury, which forms a bottle neck), there stood silent in the layby was the effing fridge freezer.

    Made me really cross, fly tipping gits!!
     
  7. Sparkielev

    Sparkielev Screwfix Select

    Do you have a dash cam?
     
  8. longboat

    longboat Screwfix Select

    I didn't expect much of a gain on the weekly stats either, but, as with most things these figures are based on a very short time frame which gives a rather skewed impression.

    I haven't got enough fingers and toes to count the number of times I've shaken my head in disbelief at headlines stating 'this is the worst since, or 'not seen since', only to find out that their memories (and viable data) only stretch back a few years at most.

    Have you seen the stats for we/9/1/2015?
    They are about the same as these, although not so much above the average, but still an anomaly and yet no lockdown, no such drastic measures were ever implemented.

    Apparently the 99-2000 strain was even worse although the ONS didn't start compiling any of these records until 2005.

    I still think the reaction by many governments throughout the world to this new threat has been largely unnecessary, fueled by media hype with individuals placing pressure on them also through the miracles of social media.

    Damned if they do and damned if they don't, they do (quite understandably) have a nice figure of 250000 as supplied by the ICL as a nice fall back though.
    I can see this number being repeated ad nauseam in the coming months when the true cost of this lockdown starts to bite.
     
    Muzungu likes this.
  9. Muzungu

    Muzungu Screwfix Select

    I must say I was surprised and the figures that come through next week should therefore be even higher. I'll have a look later at the date you quote.

    It will be some time, as you say, before things will even out and the true picture becomes clear. It could be, for example, that the greatest majority of those in the figures are those that would have popped off anyway over the next year or so. That would possibly never appear plainly in the figures as the average would only be slightly lower over the next few years; and then all sorts of other things would come into play to cloud anything obvious.

    I am looking at Sweden with some interest to see how they cope as they have little or no lockdown.[/QUOTE]
     
    longboat likes this.
  10. Jitender

    Jitender Screwfix Select

    Hope they open the tip soon as could see more fly tipping:( Recycling centre is only open to commercial with a carriers licences.
     
  11. Muzungu

    Muzungu Screwfix Select

    Did some looking around for any research on this spike and it appears it has been looked at and various speculations made about its origin. For example the ONS did their own research concluding as below but without complete confidence, seemingly.

    "There are various potential explanations to increases in mortality during the winter. Flu is likely to be an important factor contributing to the increase in 2015. The predominant circulating flu virus in 2015 was influenza A(H3N2) a strain known to predominantly affect older people. There were numerous reported outbreaks in care homes, admissions to hospital and intensive care for flu higher than recent seasons, and evidence that the flu vaccine was less effective than expected. The peak in influenza admissions to intensive care occurred in January, at the same time as the peak increase in deaths."

    Then there are a number of other articles about it from the usual suspects with a political axe to grind, the Guardian being the foremost, blaming austerity etc.

    Fascinating stuff, and I await next Tuesday's figures with interest.
     
    longboat likes this.
  12. ajohn

    ajohn Screwfix Select

    [/QUOTE]

    Their infection count is increasing with a 10% plus death rate. if some one needs a hospital they very probably would die so in the UK's case that would represent near 100,000 even though over 70's are trying to self isolate so there are likely to be a high number that haven't caught it. Also as every one is on lock down the same applies to the rest.

    The ONS data suggests that reported deaths are something like 50% lower than they actually are. There is a decent article on this on the BBC's site.

    Singapore didn't lock down as such. They split "workers" into shifts so that could distance and tracked cases and contacts. Their testing per head of population is way way more than any one else can achieve.
     
  13. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member

    If you take into account the relative population sizes, Sweden have currently just passed the one-way gate into ****-creek and they've left their paddle at home.

    Their pop is around 10 million as opposed to the UK which is near 67 million. But last 3 days they've had 117, 170 and 130 deaths respectively. Multiply those figures by 6.7 and you get 702, 1139, 871 deaths which are worse than the UK and given they haven't locked down, those numbers are only going in one direction for the next 4 weeks!
     
  14. Sparkielev

    Sparkielev Screwfix Select

    Don't get their reasoning for not locking down, surely a country with that population would have been easy to control the virus'
     
  15. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member

    I've been looking at a few of these - how different countries have used mobiles.

    In one SE Asian country, maybe more than one, they used the GPS tracking of mobiles to track the movement of anyone testing +ve, or people who had just entered the country and faced a 14 days mandatory quarantine. If the phone moved outside their home, the police were notified. Every day someone would call to check on how you were doing. If you didn't answer the call, or call back within 15 mins, the police were notified. etc

    I know Germany are looking at using a smart watch app to track people's heart-rate, temperature and sleeping patterns. This is so that they can pick up which areas have worse outbreaks then they can focus their efforts there.
    Then there's the apps that use bluetooth to pick up potential contacts and warn them if you test +ve. Most only work with official test centres, but the UK one also allows self-diagnosis (although the alerts sent are a different colour apparently if it's not a "confirmed" case) - still I suspect that without a massive ramp up in community testing, it won't be much use.

    Talking of testing, this is a rather shocking reveal from The Telegraph
     
  16. longboat

    longboat Screwfix Select

    Given those numbers it looks like putting a country in lockdown has very little effect at controlling mortality rates.
    How do those statistics compare with say, Italy or Spain?
     
  17. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member

    Well, in a way, it's the herd-immunity plan, except in Sweden, they have a reasonable chance of letting the virus rip through the country WITHOUT overwhelming their health service. Given the spread out nature of the population, they'll actually need fewer people
    I don't really see how you draw that conclusion.

    It's difficult to directly compare Sweden's epidemic with that of say Italy currently, because the data for Sweden is quite up and down. What you can see is that Sweden is about 1 month behind Italy if you look at when they first started getting 10+ mortalities in a day.

    But the whole point of lockdown is to reduce the rate of infection - i.e. how many people each infected person passes the virus on to, on average. In Wuhan it was estimated to be around 3.5 which is higher than influenza, but lower than for example Measles. The hope in the UK is that the measures we've taken have reduced this number to <1 - the smaller it now is, the quicker the number of cases declines. Looking at Italy, it seems like it's not been reduced THAT much below 1 because the rate of decline in deaths is quite slow - still at 2/3 of peak, 2 weeks later.

    Sweden has a lower infection rate than Italy by default due to its spread out population. Still it's clearly a lot greater than 1 and given that they've taken very few social distancing measures, the expectation would be that it is still greater than 1. Too early to tell from the figures, but I'd expect their daily death toll to keep climbing slowly.

    Note however, it's all about getting that value below 1, so the fact that Sweden started with a lower value DOES mean they needn't take as extreme measures to get the number down.

    Contrast that with somewhere like India, where it's naturally going to be far far higher than here due to the numbers living in close proximity. I fear that it's countries like that that are going to be hit hardest no matter what the authorities try to do.


    Edit: I've just found this article on the subject.
     
  18. longboat

    longboat Screwfix Select

    Look at the mortality rates/#population and it is quite clear.
    The stats so far don't reveal any disparity between Sweden's death count compared to any other European country.

    When this virus snuffs itself out then all will be revealed.
    Maybe?
     
  19. Tony Goddard

    Tony Goddard Screwfix Select

    So, apparently this morning an NHS trust manager called the BBC to ask for the phone number of Barbour & Burberry who are now making gowns because they are running low.
    J. Barbour & Sons Ltd. 0191 427 4210, Burberry Group Plc. 020 3402 1444.
    That took me 2 minutes on Google - I strongly feel the manager in question should be sacked and the trust given a boot up the ****. It is the height of unprofessionalism to be involving the media in the logistical issues, which lets face it, are going to raise their heads - and cause more hyperbolic panic. Thus far the NHS are doing fantastically well, they are operating under capacity and keeping their collective head above water, mainly due to the selfless efforts of the staff on the front line. Some prat in the office who can't even find a phone number is not part of the solution, but part of the problem, and should be shown the door pronto.
     
    timotay and longboat like this.
  20. Muzungu

    Muzungu Screwfix Select

    This struck me as more than odd as well. There is a nationwide and international logistics effort to supply PPE and as you said, does he not have the gumption to find out himself if they are running low, I stress "if". It is worth remembering that despite the frontline NHS workers doing a fantastic job there will always, in any section of the workforce, be those prepared to try to make political capital of any situation.

    I am at a loss to how the Government can do more with equipment, I am impressed with what they have done.
     
    longboat and Tony Goddard like this.

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