Sort of - as long as you recognise that what you're actually tracking there is hospital admissions, NOT the number of new infections. We don't test people outside of hospital unless they're the daughter of a senior politician. The drop-away to zero will take a while. For comparison, it took 2 months of a TOTAL lockdown in China to bring numbers down to close to zero. The UK is less than one month into something that isn't really close to a total lockdown, with LOTS of people still working, travelling on public transport, visiting supermarkets, not to mention the idiots holding parties. Well we didn't do this initially. We hardly tested anyone, and we certainly didn't trace contacts - we did this for a handful of people who had returned from China at the end of January, and then we gave up. Remember, we had the herd-immunity/do-nothing plan back then. The intent was to let the virus spread quickly through the population. Too right!