Corona virus Lockdown

Discussion in 'Just Talk' started by koolpc, Mar 23, 2020.

  1. timotay

    timotay Active Member

  2. Heat

    Heat Screwfix Select

    Shopkeeper should refuse to remove the chalk, take the fine and put a complaint into the police. I doubt it the fine would be enforced.
    Once the police officer was informed it was just spray chalk, he should have backed down
     
    timotay likes this.
  3. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member

    Umm - neither - the US statement is complete and utter rubbish - it may peak in New York in about 3 weeks time (in terms of number of infections - deaths are 2 weeks behind), but for the rest of the country where they haven't even imposed restrictions yet? It's anyone's guess - for sure A LOT of people there are going to die.

    In the UK it's difficult to tell - we've only just imposed any kind of useful measures and these are still incomplete - may be enough to slow the spread down - note - where and when peak is doesn't really matter if the curve is seriously flattened. There are only two possible ends.
    1) ALL new infections stop, because everyone who has the virus is quarantined - the only way of doing this is a COMPLETE lockdown for 3 weeks - nobody leaving home at all - a bunch of vounteers used to distribute supplies who are then themselves quarantined afterwards for 3 weeks. That might do it - but we'd also have to quarantine any incoming travellers which we still aren't doing.
    2) We get a vaccine and everyone is innoculated which is likely to be sometime towards the end of next year.
     
  4. wiggy

    wiggy Screwfix Select

    Jord86 likes this.
  5. timotay

    timotay Active Member

    Even with pictures ?
    lol
     
    wiggy likes this.
  6. PaulBlackpool

    PaulBlackpool Screwfix Select

    You are probably right. I wasn't making a political point, This thing is bigger than Party politics. Some Tories have been considering co-opting a "sensible" potential Labour leader ,Kier Starmer on to the COBRA committee. I believe Nicola Sturgeon already attends. I am fully behind Boris in this but as he is infected he should not be working and he should be resting.
    He is not following his own guidelines. He is going to end up killing himself.
     
  7. wiggy

    wiggy Screwfix Select

    Only a certain type of picture.
     
  8. timotay

    timotay Active Member

    That would be the Sun or Mirror then ?
    lol
     
  9. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member

    I'd have to ask why - not that I think Labour would have done ANY better, but the UK's handling of it all has been an utter disgrace. They claim to be following Scientific advice, but that's ******** - we actually know nothing about the virus that wasn't widely known mid January - which isn't an awful lot, but plenty to act on. We didn't do a thing for 6 weeks, then flagrantly ignored the advice of the WHO in how we managed it since. How much political pressure is Chris Witty under? Or is that he's totally out of his depth? South Korea had a MUCH worse start than we did, with the cult member acting as a super spreader, but they've already completely turned things around. We aren't even slowing it down yet - even with this kind of partial lockdown - in fact, because we initially started off with the lunatic plan to do nothing and achieve herd-immunity, we let the virus spread to the extent it is that much harder to deal with now.

    THIS from the editor of perhaps the world's oldest and most prestigious medical journal
     
  10. peter palmer

    peter palmer Super Member

    I think Borris has done the right thing up to now, if you isolate everyone from day one then when you let them out everyone will catch it at once overwhelming the NHS straight away. I think with a virus such as this then at some stage everyone will catch it no matter what, its the right thing to let so many catch it at first, then stop the spread for a while, let everyone out again until a lot more have caught it but never let it get to the stage that it becomes hopeless to defeat.

    Sooner or later most of us are going to catch this virus and we either die or get better, nothing else is possible, lets just hope several experts are right and 30 million of us have already had it but only test test test will determine that, turn the invisible enemy into a visible one.
     
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  11. Sparkielev

    Sparkielev Screwfix Select

    So why aren't we testing full scale ?
     

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  12. ajohn

    ajohn Screwfix Select

    S.Korea was well prepared for it. Chicken flue, sars, mers so they decided to have a plan that included mobile phone tracking and texts - you've been near it etc. Put their test kit manufactures into overdrive and etc including critical care gear for nurses that completely cover and have respirator filters that finish up on the back of the wearer. Seems Trump has ordered rather a lot of test kits off them. Seems results are available in 2 hrs. We haven't. Singapore seems to have coped well. They launched a web site where people could report self isolation what else they did other than making medical treatment free pass but clearly had a plan.

    A Korean nurse made a comment on the telly. A lot of the people who finish up on respirators die and the fact that some do recover is satisfying.

    On the face of it all countries should have a plan.

    Public Health England have updated this a bit and it gets refreshed at 5pm each day or should be

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

    It will definitely be a few weeks yet before we know where we are and the figures per head of population in areas and towns make things look a bit different.

    The test that is coming seems to be the have had it one and numbers so far suggest sampling. Seems the NHS may be developing their own.
     
  13. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member

    Do you think the virus just floats around in the air outside waiting for people to come out and catch it? Because it sounds like you do.

    If you isolate people immediately, then anyone with the virus, keeps it to themselves, recovers and then when everyone is let out again, there IS no virus to catch any more.
    The only thing you need to do then is to quarantine ALL incoming travellers for 14 days like China is doing.

    As things currently stand in the UK, the virus IS circulating and will continue to do so because our lockdown is incomplete, so there is NO chance of it lifting because that would certainly spike the cases.

    What we should have done:
    1) As soon as the virus left China, started quarantining ALL incoming travellers and testing anyone showing symptoms (like China are doing now) - note we're STILL not quarantining incoming travelllers.
    2) Because we didn't do that, while the cases were few in number in the UK, we could have locked down like we are now and implemented wide testing - could have mopped it up in no time, like they have in South Korea
    3) Because we didn't do that, we're now at a point where nothing short of a total lockdown will work: i.e. NOBODY leaves their homes for 3 weeks - would have to be enforced by the military - evidence for this - look at Spain, Italy - number of infections still increasing by huge numbers each day despite their much fuller lockdowns.
     
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  14. koolpc

    koolpc Screwfix Select

    Too little too late.
     
  15. ajohn

    ajohn Screwfix Select

    I think that could have easily slowed the initial spread across the country down just by asking people to think about there travelling. Some people in particular. Those that regularly or want to buzz about the country. Many of those could use the phone instead. Nothing wrong with going to work were people do or shopping etc where they usually do. ;) If people take no notice close the motorways other than for certain vehicles that do need to use them. Easy enough to police without causing them much of a problem. There are camera all over the place that can even register car numbers.

    As it is we need to wait and see how accurate the modelling is and from results if the clamps should have been put on sooner or maybe even later. Depends on what they hope to achieve.

    They have updated that graph at a different time again so bigger spike next time we get a full 24hrs.
     
  16. Sparkielev

    Sparkielev Screwfix Select

    You're right I don't understand why they didn't act sooner, they knew the dangers of this virus it not just us every country seems to have acted very slowly, the only way to stop it is full lockdown
     
  17. PaulBlackpool

    PaulBlackpool Screwfix Select

    Let's hope that this latest figure for UK deaths is just a spike .
    Am I right in saying that they are stating that the number of deaths will double every three days?
    If the peak of infections is in two or three weeks then the peak of deaths might be the end of April.
    I know this is all speculation but if you do the maths this is extremely worrying if not terrifying.
    I just cannot believe such an outcome.
     
  18. koolpc

    koolpc Screwfix Select

    I agree with you. Its a waiting game of which the outcome does look scary.
     
  19. ajohn

    ajohn Screwfix Select

    It seems that people who die generally spend longer in hospital so on that basis there is a lag in peak deaths. Not enough info given. They have gone to some effort to try and ensure 1 to 1.5million people don't die. That seems to be the range of numbers of letters sent out and support provided for vulnerable people. It might be higher. Not sure how residential care fits in.

    I mentioned plans. Maybe what they are doing is ours and the same for other countries. They did react to one possible problem with a lot of antivirals. The people who worry about epidemics have been wondering when a serious one would come along for a long time. It's a good job aids spread as it did.
     
  20. Tangoman

    Tangoman Well-Known Member


    It's not a spike - it's pretty much as expected.

    Takes about 14 days on average from infection to death, so the exponential growth will carry on for about another 10 days or so. After that - well looking at the data from Spain/Italy, it seems the rate of increase slows - note - still increasing, just not as fast - this isn't "peak", this is the curve starting to shape towards a peak.

    Basically, if you want to know what will happen - look at Italy/Spain because they're about 10 days to 2 weeks ahead of us.

    The most worrying thing for the UK is the fact that the NHS is wholly unprepared - basic protective equipment isn't available - follow Richard Horton (editor of the most prestigious medical journal in the world) on Twitter if you want to hear the horror stories from doctors and nurses on the front line - e.g. one nurse with no protective equipment was told to hold her breath and close her eyes if a covid patient coughed at her.
    We know that people who receive a high "dose" of the virus are much more likely to die - hence there have been many young doctors and nurses killed. If that happens here, which seems likely it will make a bad situation worse.

    My feeling - we'll get up to about 700 deaths/day by about wednesday of next week. At that point, the lockdown will be intensified. Hard to judge numbers after that - I'd be surprised if we kept under 1000/day - but if fuller measures are taken next week, then 1000 may be the peak - how long it stays at that number is anyone's guess though - again Italy's figures will provide a good guide.
     

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