Good news on the economy post Brexit today...

Discussion in 'Just Talk' started by chippie244, Nov 28, 2018.

  1. chippie244

    chippie244 Well-Known Member

    So all informed opinion is that the economy will fall of a cliff, so much for the billions we will save not paying into the EU.
    I supposed the best thing for the leavers is there will be minus immigration as everyone who can leaves the country as it falls of a cliff.
     
  2. Heat

    Heat Well-Known Member

    I think it is good news.
    They keep getting it wrong though, so we can assume it will be wrong again.
    Many Brexit voters (and I know also a lot of Remainers) said the economy will slow initially.
    I think it is the EU that is now near the cliff edge.
     
  3. Isitreally

    Isitreally Well-Known Member

    Haven't we been here before. ??
     
  4. Isitreally

    Isitreally Well-Known Member

    Copied from the net.



    It is wholly unacceptable, and I have never been so shocked in all my life that intelligent people could even imagine that it is a ‘good deal’. If the Tories cannot deliver a proper Brexit before the next election, then a political chasm is certain, and the election will be lost to Corbyn. The Tories would be in wilderness territory. I watch politician after politician speak and it is all too clear many have not studied their subject and have little idea of world trade or tariffs.
    The WTO arrangement with safeguards could be easily applied and would be leaving properly thereby saving us a huge sum. We pay £11bn net member fee, £3.1bn of our Vat, and our non-EU imports are tariffed to the tune of £16bn pa pushing up prices and 80% of this goes to the EU. We are losing £4-5bn pa of our fishing industry Heath gave away.
    There are several billion £ of pointless grants made with our own money apart from the net member fee, such as ‘set aside’ upon which savings could be made. The Treasury calculated in 2005 for Gordon Brown, that compliance with EU regulations costs UK industry 6-7% of GDP annually (http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/…/global_europe_1…) That is over £130bn pa much of which is wasted costs, yet only 12% of businesses have any direct or indirect business with the EU. The most important thing now is that the UK must not be left having to comply with the EU rulebook in future.
    Even if full tariffs were imposed under WTO, Sterling would adjust by 4-5% to cope immediately. Average WTO tariffs are 3-5%. Look instead at the superb options open to us and the EU cannot prevent them if we just leave on WTO- E.g.
    1. The UK would receive £12bn pa in tariffs at the full WTO rates if we impose them on our EU imports alone and a further £13-14bn on non-EU imports.
    2. We could also choose selective tariffs and impose nil tariffs on any class of imported goods we wish from all the world, such as food, medicine or even car parts.
    3. OR We could simply impose no tariffs on anything with no extra customs work required for EU goods and reducing it from the 111 countries with whom we already trade under WTO rules. Imagine REFUNDING our businesses, all WTO tariffs imposed by Brussels (by reduced taxes/business rates or other means) would cost about £6bn, and LESS than our net member fee. An intelligent application would leave us competitive and in a better place to negotiate excellent trade agreements across the world. There’s no £39bn divorce bill either, an amount the government have never explained or justified. We would be out of the single market and Customs Union and therefore free as an independent sovereign nation should be.
    People did not vote to be shackled to the EU any longer or the possibility of massive bail outs for Italy, now bust beyond belief as a result of EU policy and the Euro.
    The EU would be terrified if we leave under WTO terms because their deal as offered is designed to strip us of all competitive advantage possible. The prize of leaving is huge yet so many are still unaware of the advantages it is very sad.
    Talk of cliff edge etc is totally wrong if an effort is made to prepare the ground, which could be done very rapidly. The Prime Minister has deliberately kept two Brexit Secretary’s in the dark about parallel negotiations she has capriciously been conducting. She lives in a parallel universe in relation to the deal she offers. She made encouraging noises about leaving the Single market and Customs Union initially and you all stood on a manifesto promising to do just that. It is essential to leave both to make a success of Brexit, yet her deal is a million miles away from doing this.
    She is not being truthful about the nature of this deal as it specifically does NOT deliver the referendum result. It is a deal for a Transition period only. She should have been negotiating a Withdrawal trade Agreement, which may have contained a brief transition.
    This proposal has a particularly devastating fault which is inexplicable and dangerous. It does not allow the British government to unilaterally withdraw from the transition period and has no fixed end date by which there must be a Trade Agreement, or automatic withdrawal under WTO, if none were agreed.
    The transition can be extended indefinitely without any power to stop it - Article 132 is totally unacceptable and No wonder the EU want us to agree it! The EU can then pass laws we must obey which are wholly against our interests, interpreted by the ECJ. We would have to continue funding the EU AT A RATE SET BY THE EU with NO BUDGET REBATE REQUIRED. EU law will continue to have effect as if we were a member – Article 127. But we won’t have any MEP’s or say over anything we must obey and the ECJ continues its ruinous rule – Articles 86 & 131. Indeed, the ECJ will remain with us in many ways as it is the final court of interpretation for Mrs May’s deal – Article 174(1). We would have to comply with their Judgement on it, under Article 89(1). The EU would be able to continue to treat our territorial waters as their own and we may only be ‘consulted’ under Article 130 as to what fishing we may do. Most of anything useful is contained in the non-binding political declaration and Mrs May is using text from it to try and persuade Britain she has a worthwhile deal. Matters of co-operation can easily be agreed post leaving and piece by piece.
    This deal is nothing but a surrender. There is no incentive on the EU to agree any form of so called ‘Free Trade’ deal with us and they can continue to disagree with anything we put forward, holding us in a ‘backstop’ customs union they control. We will also be forced to comply with ‘level playing field conditions’ covering tax, environment, employment, state aid and competition policy. See P311. All with no control or say.
    The backstop also means the UK will be fractured down the Irish sea. These provisions mean that effectively we are in the single market subject to swathes of public policy. There is scant democracy about the EU now, but this deal is an abrogation of responsibility to maintain and recover all our sovereignty, being the whole point of voting Brexit.

    There is plenty more alarming stuff, but I have said enough. There is no right in British law to give a foreign power control of this sort within a Treaty or to pass legislation which cannot be repealed by a successor Parliament. You will not find a Treaty anywhere in the world where the parties have no right to withdraw from it unilaterally. I therefore ask that you do not support Mrs May’s deal. Otherwise you are voting for a colonial status. If there’s No Brexit there will be no Tory party and this deal is NOT Brexit. It is essential to vote May’s deal down and put together a safeguarding package to protect our affected industry to leave absolutely and finally under WTO terms. We trade like this with 111 other countries around the world. 408 (62.8%) constituencies voted to LEAVE. It is still not too late to prevent this betrayal by instead leaving on WTO rules. It is the duty of every MP to mobilise and to lobby for that. We must not be left in the position of a vassal state nor exposed by REMAINING to the enormous liabilities arising from the emerging Eurozone disaster.
     
  5. btiw2

    btiw2 Well-Known Member

    Where's "here"?
    If "here" is refusing to engage with analysis and instead simply copy/paste websites that reassure you - then yes, yes we have.

    Here's a quick tip for establishing the honesty of an article.
    • Look for "11bn", "13bn" and "18bn".
    It means the author has deliberately ignored all money the EU sends back (and in the case of 18bn, money we never sent them too).

    Simples huh?

    Any honest analysis can then be picked apart. But if the article starts with a misrepresentation then is there any point in continuing with it?

    I also don't believe that you've read or understood what that author is proposing. But, benefit of the doubt, which of those three options do you prefer?

    Out of interest, is anybody interested in reading the treasury reports (pre and post brexit)?

    I've seen people confusing the two pre-brexit reports.
    One report was the long term effects if we left[1], but we haven't, so we still don't know how accurate that was; the other was the immediate impact report.[2]
    People quote failed predictions from the former, when they should be looking only at the latter.
    It's true that some predictions from the latter did not materialise (unemployment/house prices), but some did (real term wage growth) and some were worse that predicted (inflation and currency).
    I think it's useful to look at the predictions in depth and see why they did or didn't materialise if we're to better understand the future uncertainties and risks.

    Or y'all could continue to recite the mantra of "project fear", but don't be surprised if people start reciting "project ostrich" and "project illiterate" back.

    [1] Although now we have more information, I suppose that report has been superseded.
    [2] https://assets.publishing.service.g...ysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership_web.pdf
    https://assets.publishing.service.g...ate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
     
    chippie244 likes this.
  6. Bob Rathbone

    Bob Rathbone Well-Known Member

    Mark Carney is well known for 'getting it wrong'. We should remember that this scenario is the 'worst case', as Mr Carney stated. It would have helped if he had also mentioned the 'best case' for fair balance. At present it just seems to be another chapter in 'Project Fear'. On a side issue, does anyone know what is going on?, I mean anyone in Government.
     
    BiancoTheGiraffe likes this.
  7. chippie244

    chippie244 Well-Known Member

    It must have taken you ages to type all that.:)
     
  8. Allsorts

    Allsorts Well-Known Member

    Such as these initial predictions being premised on the UK leaving immediately after the vote in a hard way - exactly as many Leavers actually thought would happen, and have been shouting for ever since.
     
  9. Allsorts

    Allsorts Well-Known Member

    Which ejit, er I mean hero of yours, wrote that?



    Soz, btiw2, I have sunk to below IIR's level...
     
  10. Allsorts

    Allsorts Well-Known Member

    Enough already of 'Project Fear' - that is so last week.

    It's now PROJECT HYSTERIA! As coined by the recently EU-officed hedge-fund co-owner. (I wonder where he salts his £100m personal fortune?)
     
  11. Allsorts

    Allsorts Well-Known Member

    The most bemusing thing to observe is how the (almost certainly) vast majority of original Leavers will now only harden their stance, because one thing they will never ever do is admit they may have been duped.

    Because that would be an admission that they may have been foolish. So they'll hide that behind being foolish; poo-pooing the evidence and burying their C-F's under a rock.
     
  12. Isitreally

    Isitreally Well-Known Member


    Au contraire, we are being duped, in fact we all are being duped.

    Leave are not getting leave.

    Remain are getting a sort of remain but under what terms.???

    Mays deal doesn't suit anybody.
     
  13. chippie244

    chippie244 Well-Known Member

    So what option would you prefer, May's deal, no deal or no leave?
     
  14. Allsorts

    Allsorts Well-Known Member

    You actually thought it wouldn't be like this? It wouldn't be carnage? You actually thought something so damaging, so politically, so economically, so degradingly suicidal would just 'happen' because a bunch of ejits thought it was what they wanted?

    That's another thing that separates the L's and the R's; we knew it would be a mess all along. Just not as messy.
     
  15. Isitreally

    Isitreally Well-Known Member


    As it stands now.

    No Deal.
     
    Allsorts likes this.
  16. Isitreally

    Isitreally Well-Known Member


    I don't think anybody thought it would be plain sailing, we are dealing with the EU after all and nothing they do is simple.
     
  17. chippie244

    chippie244 Well-Known Member

    And screw the country for generation ot more?
     
  18. Allsorts

    Allsorts Well-Known Member

    Damn the EU for sticking to its fundamental principles. Whilst the UK stuck to only its mental.


    damn - I'm on fire tonight
     
  19. longboat

    longboat Well-Known Member

    Worse things could happen.
    Just imagine the backlash if your mate Corby formed a government.
     
  20. chippie244

    chippie244 Well-Known Member

    What are you scared about?
     

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