This was a wager, as such I have to do due diligence to my bank account, you don't go into a bookies and back a horse because you like the name, then try to rubbish all the other horses, well you could but it doesn't win bets, we have a few months to election, Harris has already met the supporting funding demands ahead of announcement, that is she is already backed going into selection, done deal there I'd say.
But the key factors are direction of travel, we have a few months to watch that and it is a strong indicator, for that I'd refer you to the Financial Times, they do the best analysis, usually a combination average of all results, provides the bigger picture very broadly, this is 18 hours ago, Harris has risen since the last one...
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An 'approval rating' is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program, it only tells part of the story but it tells the part that is dynamically changing, she has been a nominee for what? a week? take a look at the next one to see a more accurate direction of travel.
Next there are the debates, if Trump does in fact show up, there are rumours he won't, doesn't matter either way for that, when a candidate doesn't turn up it's for the same reason, Trump's limited negative waffling works with an ageing biden, it could never against a lucid person offering a positive message, he would be revealed and sunk in my opinion.
Then I'd look at the policies, it is absolutely the case that an outgoing or sitting government is against the wall there, their policies are already in place and if people don't like them there is not much they can do, an incoming candidate always has the promise of the wind of change factor, and then..oh, abortion, decisive and half of the US population who don't poll are going to have an opinion on that, there are others.
It could be that Harris can't close the gap in the time given, I personally think all things considered she can, and the data shows she is already doing just that.